Early reports from the South Korean Defense Ministry, U.S. satellite intelligence assets, and Korea’s Institute for Defense Analyses (sourced by South Korean news, and the AP reporting) indicate that North Korea is prepping for another long-range missile test and simultaneously bolstering its coastal defenses along it’s western coast.  Along the western coast reports establish that North Korean military has ordered troops there and along the disputed western sea border to double up on ammunition stockpiles.

Also on the west coast intelligence indicates that North Korea has moved much of it’s advanced missile technology and hardware to  a new west coast base and launch complex, altogether, only40 miles away from China’s border with the country.  While this advanced missile technology is purported to be able to reach Alaska or Guam, previous tests have only cleared Japan’s east coast at about a range of 2,000 miles and being short of the 5,000 or so miles needed to reach any significant part of the United States (including Alaska).

 A move to North Korea’s western coast does give the North Koreans the ability to easily off load missile hardware to waiting ships, that in turn do not have to trek around the heavily fortified Korean peninsula where South Korea has joined a pact of nations vowing to stop all North Korean ships believed to be caring weapons of mass destruction.  Yet, placement on the west coast also gives the new North Korean base hope that America would not attack such a target at only 40 miles from the Chinese border.

The reports indicate that the long-range missile may be ready to go by mid-June, possibly to coincide with a meeting between South Korean President Lee and President Obama on June 16th.  What’s interesting about this recent development is the certain lack of satellite imagery and analysis that was provided by the intelligence community (IC) and foreign affairs watchers alike during the first long-range missile test preparations.  It could be due to the fact that the latter has not had time to reposition satellites available to the general public, but no explanation can, of course, be given for the former’s silence other than the fact that ongoing clandestine operations may be compromised if intelligence on North Korea is released by the IC.  From my very few I-can-count-on-half-a-hand talks I’ve had with CIA personnel such dissemination of information always present real challenges to the agency as many operations with CIA are always ongoing, “24 hours, around the clock.”  While news reports from North Korea are more than likely peppered with exaggerations and oft-belligerent nonsense, the North Koreans have reported an increase in the number of spy planes that have been ” perpetrated,” by the West, stating that ”at least 200 cases of aerial espionage have been perpetrated] against the DPRK in May, or 30 cases more than those in the same month of last year.”  At the very least this indicates that intelligence assets have been repositioned to task with North Korea.  Furthermore, judging by President Obama’s almost zealous cause for nuclear non-proliferation (and after all he was the main sponsor of legislation on the issue during his time in the Senate), it makes sense that he might have given the order for most assets to be placed on North Korea.

In an attempt to coroborate the reports above, intelligence indicates that North Korea has designated an area of it’s west coast as a “no-sail’ zone, however one must wonder why that would pertain to a missile launch as opposed to something else.  You’d likely only designate an area a “no-sail” zone if you were going to penetrate that area with a weapon, but America is off North Korea’s east coast, not west coast.

In any case, North Koreas latest outbursts may be just that, only the latest outbursts in a long train of tantrums.  Of course, we don’t believe in beating our children anymore, and therein one has to live with the consequences of one’s actions - as we do now - but we can always put them on timeout - as we will.  While such an analogy may be comical at best, sometimes that’s just what comedy is: the utter truth.